We Have Not Addressed the Real Financial Problem

Who is to blame for our current financial crisis?  Greedy homeowners?  Real estate agents? Is it builders, mortgage brokers, bank lenders, wall street businesses, congress, Al-Kida?

Let's look at the free enterprise model.  

Individuals are given incentives to own business that sell products to individuals.  By owning or working for one of these businesses, people gain wealth and have the buying power to buy products from other businesses.  The entire process is built on a core fundamental of supply and demand.

So, the businesses create product to sell to the public.  The competition for product sales drives businesses to create marketing strategies to motivate people to buy.  The buyers are given visual and audio stimulation to choose different products.  

Sounds simple and it is.  But let's look at where the problem exists in this model.

Business are motivated to "sell" and therefore do not have the ability to be a moral conscience for the buyer.  They do not have the ability to think for every buyer to help them know if they can really afford the product they are buying.  So, consumers buy based on what they are allowed to purchase.  If they can get a loan for a tv, car, home, clothes, or anything else, they have the freedom to purchase it.  This is what the sellers are hoping.

Our current crisis is because consumers purchased more than they can afford.  We consumed beyond what our paychecks and balance sheets could absorb.  If we don't buy what we can't afford, banks don't overextend themselves in lending.  The credit bubble (lending beyond what the balance sheets of consumers can handle) is the problem right now.

Ok, still haven't told you anything you didn't know.  Well how about this.  The problem goes deeper than the consumerism purchasing decisions.  I think the problem is lack of education. When was the last time your kid came home from school and asked you to help them with mortgage calculation homework?  What about check book balancing?  What about investment strategies or stock market short selling?  We don't teach these things to our kids but we let them loose in a world that will attack them that has no moral conscience.  

Our education system is to blame for this crisis.  The majority of American's are "starting" to learn about these issues in the newspaper and on the internet.  This is a little late.  Unfortunately, the majority of them still don't understand it because they don't know the fundamental financial basics.  So, we will continue to repeat this type of problem.

The rest of the world hates us because of our gross consumerism attitudes.  Even my best liberal Democrat friends, who hate the American free enterprise system, are deep in debt and can't help themselves when it comes to buying.  We teach that people are entitled to an American Dream of having "stuff" and having it NOW.  We teach the dream but we don't teach how to get it.  We inspire people to entitlement and only those who are lucky enough to get educated on the process end up winning.

McCain and Obama - Address this issue and you will make a difference.  Otherwise, we will see this problem raise its ugly head again.  American's have a very short memory and a terrible basic moral compass.  We think we are owed something for nothing.

History Still Repeats when we don't pay attention

Alert:  Banks get competitive pressure to perform and improve stock value and begin to loan money for real estate to people who can only afford the mortgage if the property values continue to increase.  The real estate market takes a down turn and the banks are left with a crisis.  People can't pay their mortgages, foreclosures become rampant, bank stock values decline, public confidence goes down and people start pulling money out of the banks.  The stock market has huge declines in daily trading.  The banking system looks to go into complete failure and the economy will not be able to survive.  So, the government steps in.  They provide a cash infusion to the banking system with loans that will impact tax payers for many years to come.  The public has to bail out the poor decision making of risky real estate investors and bankers.

I know, you have all heard this and are tired of reading about it.  But, what you don't know is this is a factual account of Japan in 2002.  Yes, they did the SAME things we have just delivered to the U.S. and global economy.  Our impact might be larger, though the global banking system was at risk when Japan's economy was hit in the stomach with a baseball bat.  Our problem is escalated because of the increase in the volume mortgage backed securities.  This simply makes the problem a little further reaching.

15 months ago I spoke to a group of people about where our economy was heading.  My "guess" was exactly correct.  But, I told them at that time that England and Japan had done the same things in the past and it was going to take some time to repair.  My advice to the group I spoke to was to get out of the credit world (quit borrowing money for a period of time), and make sure you are living your life in a way that does not require increased credit.  I was correct.  

My being right is not because of a great prophecy, it was because of an awareness of history.  The banking systems in England and Japan did the same things we are doing now and credit became a hard thing to get.  Credit card usage went up because people couldn't pay bills or get credit anywhere else.  Then they were unable to pay the debt they had accumulated on the cards and large bank write offs continued to put pressure on the banking system.  This is still happening in our system today.

THE BAILOUT:  Japan's government stepped in and did exactly what our government is doing today, they are letting the tax payer bail out the banking system and real estate crooks for the bad decisions they made.  I don't like it but it is the only way we will get out of this problem.  The good news is it took Japan four years to become profitable and healthy again.  That means about 3o months before life seemed to be back to normal.  I believe we will be 24 to 30 months.  We may go faster because American's have shorter memories and will be  more creative in building the next over risky proposition.

So, if you want to understand economics better, just look at history.  Not too many new things will be created, just an embarrassing repeat of the past when we don't pay attention.